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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020.

Markets are expected to be choppy, but dip buyers could be looking at tech favorites in week ahead - (Source)

After another week of losses, tech could be at the heart of a tug of war as dip buyers look for bargains in some of their favorite names and others see the group as still too frothy.
In the past week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down about 0.6%, the third losing week. It was the S&P 500′s longest losing streak since October. Tech was broadly lower, with Amazon and Facebook both down 5% for the week. Information technology shares lost 1% but communications which includes Facebook and Google fell 2.3% for the week.
“I think every time you’ve had a significant pullback in the familiar names, that tends to draw in more money,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “You’ve had a little rotation toward value. That’s a healthy sign for the market. I don’t think that’s an unhealthy market even though stocks look pricey. Given how low interest rates are, stocks look like the only game in town.”
There are also a number of Fed speeches, but the most important will be the appearances by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before three Congressional committees. At two of those, Tuesday and Thursday, Powell appears with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss coronavirus aid.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said he does not expect much from Powell after his comments following the Fed’s meeting this week, though the central bank chairman is likely to once more tell Congress fiscal stimulus is needed to help the economy recover.
Keon said it would be positive if there could be another stimulus deal but the market no longer expects it. “If we do get a deal, that would be really positive. I think at this point, there’s a little bit of a slowdown in news. We still have a ways to go before we get into earnings warnings season. We’re going to worry more about the presidential election and its aftermath,” said Keon.
Keon said investors are increasingly focused on the election and the potential for an uncertain outcome, as states deal with large amounts of mailed ballots for the first time. He said the concern is it could take weeks or months to determine the outcome if the race is close.
“It’s still six weeks to the election. We haven’t had the debates yet. That six weeks is a lifetime. Biden seems to be the favorite at this point, but I don’t think the market is betting on anything but higher volatility,” Keon said. President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden hold their first debate Sept. 29.
“I think volatility is the norm, not the exception, until we get through the election,” said Hogan.
Investors have been hedging against extended volatility after the election. Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P options with Cardinal Capital, said the flow into S&P 500 options for January has been steady over the past several days. “The options markets are implying a contested election that could last until January,” he said. He said the market is not positioning around one candidate or other, just uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs strategists noted Friday that investors have pushed out some hedging further into November, though some investors appear to be betting on an outcome by Dec. 8, the date states with contested elections have to report.
There are also a few important reports on the economic calendar, including housing data on existing home sales Tuesday and new home sales Thursday. “The housing market has been solid and hopefully, we’ll get confirmation of that because people were upset by the decline in housing starts,” said Hogan.
Manufacturing PMI is released Wednesday and durable goods are reported Friday.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 2

As we noted last week, the demand for election charts is off the charts (pun intended), so we are sharing some of our favorite election charts.
Without further ado, here are some more election charts you need to know as November 3 inches closer.
How stocks perform three months before the election has a stellar track record of predicting who will win in November. If stocks are higher, the incumbent party tends to win, while if stocks are lower, the incumbent party tends to lose. This indicator accurately predicted the winner 87% of the time (20 of 23) since the late 1920s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, if President Donald Trump is going to win, right about now is when the S&P 500 Index should start to outperform. Of course, if it weakens, it could mean we will be looking at a President Joe Biden soon.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Speaking of presidents up for re-election, here’s what the S&P 500 historically has done during re-election years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, here are two final charts that may help forecast the outcome.
If real per capita disposable income is higher, the incumbent president usually wins. Conversely, if wages are weak, that bodes well for someone new in the White House. Given real per capita disposable income is up more than 7% this year, it would suggest President Trump should take more than 70% of the votes. Of course, this is greatly skewed due to the CARES Act, so we’d put a major asterisk next to this one.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To sum up, Gallup poll approval ratings have done a nice job of predicting how many votes a president up for re-election might get. With a 42% Gallup approval rating currently, this comes out to 49% of the total votes for President Trump, which points to a close race.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 3

One of the top requests we’ve received the past few weeks is for more charts on the US elections. We shared some of our favorite in Election Charts You Need to See: Part 1 and Part 2, and today’s the third blog in our series on this important event.
S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to jump close to 23% in 2021 according to FactSet, as the global economy recovers. Presidential nominee Joe Biden has made it very clear he will likely hike taxes, which could potentially cut 10 percentage points off earnings growth next year if implemented. If Biden wins, we would expect Chinese tariffs to be removed as well, which would offset some of that impact and according to our friends at Strategas Research Partners would suggest earnings growth of nearly 17%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in our LPL Chart of the Day, how the US dollar does ahead of the election has been a great indicator of which party might win in November. If the dollar is weak three months before the election, this bodes well for the incumbent party, while the incumbent party tends to lose if the dollar is strong. This signal has been right 7 of the past 8 elections.
As we saw back in March, when trouble hits, the US dollar tends to do well, as investors flock to the safety of the world’s reserve currency. When things are calm, the dollar tends to weaken, which favors riskier assets. So far, the dollar is slightly lower, which would suggest a potential win for President Donald Trump.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the size of the tax increase proposed by Joe Biden as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) would be one of the largest ever and rival President Lyndon B. Johnson’s (LBJ) tax increases in the late 1960s. Let’s remember though, if there’s a split Congress, the chances of the full tax plan being implemented is quite slim. Additionally, a weaker economy would also reduce the chances of a large tax hike.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Seasonal Volatility Just Getting Started

The market's day-to-day volatility has picked up in September after experiencing more stable trading action during the summer months. This is not out of the ordinary. Historically, the most volatile time of the year for stocks has been between September and early November. You can see this in the chart below that shows the average absolute daily percentage change for each trading day of the year beginning on the first trading day of January through the last trading day of December. As shown, daily volatility is very consistent around the +/-0.70% level over the first eight months of the year, but then it starts to pick up beginning in September until it reaches a peak during the first week or two of November. From there, the holiday season takes over and daily volatility plummets right through the end of the year. As shown in the chart, unfortunately we've still got a ways to go to get to the top of the volatility mountain, so make sure you've got your climbing gear ready for the next six to eight weeks!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Keeping Tabs On High Frequency Growth

The week ended September 11th showed a sharp decline in our index of weekly GDP versus the year before. As shown, our index can be quite volatile, but it does do a decent job tracking the general trajectory of GDP. Since peaking at an implied growth rate of +0.9% YoY on July 10th, our index has slid to -2% YoY, the lowest reading since mid-June.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at another tracker of short-term economic growth, below we show Weekly Economic Index data updated by the New York Fed each week. After decelerating sequentially YoY for the week ended September 4th, the WEI reported sequential YoY growth slower once again in the week ended September 11th. We also show what each high frequency tracker implies about quarterly growth. As shown, our tracker has consistently implied a higher quarterly growth rate than the Weekly Economic Index, and official data for the last two quarters. That said, Q3 is tracking at least 20%, with upside to the high-20s as the US continues to rebound from COVID. This post was originally published in our post-market macro report -- The Closer -- last night.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sell(ing) Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur

As the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.” It gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement.
The basis for this, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Even in the age of algorithmic, computer, and high frequency trading these seasonal patterns persist as humans still need to turn the machines on and off and feed them money or take it away – and these algorithms and trading programs are written by people so the human influence is still there.
Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 100 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 59% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 6.7%.
This year the high holidays commence on Friday eve, September 18, and end Monday September 28 with Yom Kippur just before Octoberphobia. The current news flow already has folks selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, quite possibly setting up the market for further declines.

S&P 500 down 24 of 30 during week after September options expiration, average loss 0.95%

The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 30 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.
Full stats are in the following sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.01%, S&P 500 –0.95%, NASDAQ –0.95% and a sizable –1.42% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.21.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 9.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.25.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.25.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Costco Wholesale Corp. $335.96

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.85 per share on revenue of $52.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.87 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue increasing by 10.76%. Short interest has decreased by 40.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% above its 200 day moving average of $310.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,071 contracts of the $340.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

AutoZone, Inc. -

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $24.69 per share on revenue of $3.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $24.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.30% with revenue decreasing by 0.21%. Short interest has decreased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,095.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nike Inc $114.66

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $9.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.67% with revenue decreasing by 15.10%. Short interest has increased by 1.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.1% above its 200 day moving average of $96.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,687 contracts of the $118.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aurora Cannabis Inc $6.53

Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.29 per share on revenue of $54.64 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue to decline 35.99%. Short interest has decreased by 91.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 21.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 73.6% below its 200 day moving average of $24.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,300 contracts of the $7.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Rite Aid Corp. $13.44

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $5.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.67% with revenue increasing by 7.34%. Short interest has decreased by 17.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $14.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 16, 2020 there was some notable buying of 858 contracts of the $12.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 22.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $57.32

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.87 per share on revenue of $4.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.13% with revenue increasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 7.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.8% below its 200 day moving average of $57.76. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CarMax, Inc. $103.07

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $5.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.43% with revenue decreasing by 0.60%. Short interest has decreased by 22.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.6% above its 200 day moving average of $87.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stitch Fix, Inc. $28.36

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $415.11 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of at least $433.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 357.14% with revenue decreasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 9.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.7% above its 200 day moving average of $22.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,160 contracts of the $23.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aytu BioScience, Inc. $1.38

Aytu BioScience, Inc. (AYTU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $10.90 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.15% with revenue increasing by 535.20%. Short interest has decreased by 39.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 22.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $1.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. $24.50

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.40 per share on revenue of $1.07 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 122.22% with revenue increasing by 6.26%. Short interest has decreased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.7% above its 200 day moving average of $20.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 507 contracts of the $22.00 put and 502 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

DD: 10 Reasons that $CRSA Is the Most Underrated/Undervalued Upcoming SPAC Merger

DD: 10 Reasons that $CRSA Is the Most Underrated/Undervalued Upcoming SPAC Merger
EDIT: This SPAC merger has been terminated. I'm leaving the DD below as I'll be investing in F45 when they do go public. I have exited my position on this.
I've obsessively been doing DD on F45 (merging into CRSA; warrants: CRSAW) since early July. I've spent at least 50-100 hours picking it apart from every angle, and I've been dollar cost averaging into the shares and warrants for several weeks. I have personally concluded that this is the most underrated/undervalued SPAC merger because people have been temporarily tricked by Covid / the market to not actually look into it. I've never done a post like this before, but I decided that since I've done the DD and no one else seemed to be, I guess I'm the one to distill it for people to consider the sizable opportunity.
The company is a cash cow that is rapidly growing an imposing global brand with an innovative and scalable model of high intensity interval training studios that use a patented software system to deliver a new daily HIIT workout to every global location via digital monitors on the studio walls. I think that the vast majority of investors have skipped past looking below the surface based on the reasonable assumption that "gym + covid = bad". I encourage you to take a few minutes to look below the surface here and make sure you're not missing a significant opportunity. I believe it is.
The amount of info I could type out is more extensive than most would care to read, so I figured I'd break the key points down into a list of my favorite things about F45 as an investment opportunity. Additionally, I highly encourage you to spend 5-10 minutes reading the investor presentation hosted on Crescent Acquisition's website here.pdf). They did an excellent job of presenting the product, business model, financials, etc.
I've accumulated a lot more information than I could lay out here, so feel free to ask any questions and I'll get to all of them as soon as possible. Here are ten of the reasons that I believe CRSA is the most underrated/undervalued SPAC with an upcoming merger:

1. It’s growing 40-50%+ per year.

The charts below show F45's revenue and EBITDA growth over the past few years, as well as projections for this year and next (see point #2 as a caveat to the projections, because their franchise sales numbers this year have actually proven significantly better than forecast here, which should also have a positive effect on revenue).
As a franchise company, F45 makes most of their money from selling franchises and collecting monthly franchise fees. New franchises pay an establishment fee of up to $50k and purchase $120k in proprietary equipment from F45. Once opened, the franchises pay a $2500/month franchise fee.
(Note that the difference between "Franchises Sold" and "Total Studios Open" on the chart below seems to primarily be a matter of the lag between a franchise agreement being signed and the franchise actually opening for business, rather than failed franchises which is what I thought initially.)

https://preview.redd.it/zq6wclz3ntk51.png?width=2150&format=png&auto=webp&s=7eb89ae1b10e54fece71cb988d20216cbd002821
The slide below is interesting as well. This isn't from the investor presentation, but rather a March '19 franchise sales presentation.
The item that intrigues me the most is that F45 surpassed Crossfit as the largest gym network in Australia within just four years of launching their first location...this is explosive growth, and the United States has now overtaken Australia as their largest and fastest growing market. Their product is clearly resonating with people, even if you've never heard of it yourself (as I hadn't).
https://preview.redd.it/k5mvpqijntk51.png?width=2546&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a9ba503522252b2b0dcc5390b46e543aae3d264

2. Covid has not been nearly the significant setback that was feared.

As mentioned in the first point, the 2020 projections above have actually proven to be significantly conservative, which should increase 2021's projections as well.
As you can see in the chart in the first point, F45 was projecting new franchise sales this year of 174 due to Covid. In their August 6, 2020 8K filing, they provided a significant update to this, but they haven't updated the projections slide to reflect the latest bullish information.
Their 8/6 update stated that they sold 244 franchises so far in 2020 through July, including 124 in June/July alone. If you extrapolate out the monthly new franchise sales below, you can infer that they'll likely end up selling over 400 franchises this year, assuming the recent sales success continues.

https://preview.redd.it/bdw786b5ntk51.png?width=2038&format=png&auto=webp&s=532cba1aea8dbf116e7a80493b3f59afb2ecdecf
The 8/6 update further stated that 50 new studios opened from June through early August, and that 78% of the pre-covid franchise network was re-opened as of August 3, 2020 and that the median revenue per studios opened for seven weeks was back to 88% of pre-covid levels. Keep in mind that F45 makes their money from franchise fees, so the main factor is that studios are open and hopefully paying the full fee.
Lastly on this point, CRSA is valuing F45 at less than half of their expected pre-covid IPO price. Robert Beyer, executive chairman of CRSA and founder of Crescent Capital Group ($28bn in AUM) had this to say on the conference call: "F45 has a steep growth trajectory, proven over seven years of opening more than 1,200 and selling nearly 2,000 franchises in more than 50 countries. The company has been profitable since inception, with extremely high cash flow margins, not only for the company but for its franchisees....This is simply one of the most exciting public market stories we’ve heard, with a valuation that is 30% to 50% below its peers and less than half the expected price of its previously planned IPO, which was interrupted by the worldwide lockdown only a few short months ago."

3. The business is successfully scaling globally (very quickly).

One of the most intriguing things to me about F45's growth and the investment opportunity is that F45 is proving that their model is scalable around the globe, something that most other fitness franchises have not achieved.
The company's franchise sales team has grown from 6 to 34 members since 2019, with 18 in the Americas, three in Europe, three in the Middle East & Africa, and five in Asia, as well as five who cater to college, corporate, and military (F45s are rapidly popping up in college rec centers and soon on military bases).
The chart below shows open and soon-to-open locations around the world. It's hard to tell on this map, but I believe it's 776 in the Americas (mainly USA), 124 in Europe, 8 in Africa, 200 in Asia, and 572 in Australia. (The company started in Australia and quickly penetrated that market. The fastest growth now is in the United States.)

https://preview.redd.it/66dqonw6ntk51.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=1676d7873c6db4d0122b831ddac7793a2c254c9b

4. The celebrities who use, support, and invest in F45 make the brand sexy.

Mark Wahlberg is a key investor in F45 and will be on the board after the merger. Hugh Jackman trained for his role as Wolverine in the X-Men film series at F45. Other celebrities who use or have used F45 include Nicole Kidman, Channing Tatum, Nicole Ritchie, Sam Smith, Ricky Martin, Joel Madden, Russell Crowe, Teri Hatcher, and more.
No offense at all to Planet Fitness and PF members, but I don't think a lot of celebrities are members there.

5. The franchisees pay for the company’s growth.

The company requires very little capital to fund their growth because the franchise establishment and equipment fees fund the buildout of each new F45 location and thus fund the company's growth. Warren Buffett has long preached that the best investments are companies that require very little capital to run their business. This is a prime example.
In fact, the company doesn't really even need the capital from this merger. They've suggested how they may use it, and I'll get to that in a later point (it's bullish).

6. The company is easy to understand and follow.

You don't have to be a fitness nut or in the fitness industry to understand and follow this investment (I'm not a fitness nut or in the industry). Their business model is very simple. They make most of their money from franchise fees, as well as equipment packs.
The main metric to watch is the number of franchises sold, as you can assume that each new franchise will add the following revenue: $50k establishment fee (there seems to be wiggle room with this depending on the deal), $120k equipment purchase, and $30k+ in annual recurring revenue from the monthly franchise fee. There's also a $25k franchise renewal fee after five years, and some other fees as well, including the anticipation of equipment pack refreshes. (Note on page 49 of the investor presentation.pdf) how this revenue is recognized...the establishment fee is amortized over ten years, so each franchise sold will add approximately $5k to revenue for the ten years after it's sold from the establishment fee, in addition to the monthly franchise fee.)

7. The company has some level of moat from patents.

F45 holds patents for the innovative technology it uses to power the studios and the global network: https://patents.justia.com/assignee/f45-training-pty-ltd. It is currently actively pursuing a case against an upstart in Australia that is using a model that is allegedly similar.
I believe that F45 has tapped into a unique way to scale a HIIT training business into a global franchise model, and the success of that model is evident in the number of franchises being sold globally. It's great that they have a certain level of protection from others replicating this model. Assuming the patents prove defensible, it would be hard for competitors to replicate their success in their largest markets.

8. The product is so good that its members are often described as a cult.

If you search articles and social media, you'll often hear F45 described as a cult. Publicly traded companies with a cult following often do very well, such as Apple and Tesla.Here's the first paragraph of a 2020 GQ UK article about F45: "Whenever a friend of mine has suddenly walked back into my life looking better than they’ve ever looked before, the reason was always the same: F45. The cult exercise class, which can be found nearly anywhere in the world, just seems to work for people."

9. The potential for further growth is large enough that this is likely just in the first inning.

F45 estimates that the franchise potential in their existing markets is 25,000, based on the number of studios per capita in Australia. This seems reasonable to me because F45 was able to get to basically a 1:1 parity with Crossfit locations in Australia within three years. F45 is arguably a much better structured / operated business than Crossfit (from a capitalistic investment perspective), which is why I think they were able to achieve a similar number of locations in Australia so quickly.
Based on informal polling of friends and chatter on the internet, it seems evident to me that very few people in the United States have heard of F45. However, if you live in a small city or larger and search your city on the locations map on their website, chances are that there's a studio open or opening soon near you.
Since each studio only needs 75-150 members to operate profitably and can't accommodate many more, it's been quietly growing and thriving, unnoticed by the majority of people. As the number of locations grows to accommodate more people, I think it's highly likely that you'll be hearing about it a lot before long. If you know someone who does Crossfit, chances are you'll know someone who does F45 soon.
As an addendum to the paragraph above, if you've ever read "One Up on Wall Street" by Peter Lynch, I believe that this is a perfect example of the type of opportunity he describes. It's a rapidly growing, profitable company with a great product and a business model that's easy to understand, but that most people have not yet heard of. Unless some unanticipated force somehow stops them dead in their tracks (as Covid appears to have failed to do), the growth is likely on enough of a trajectory to where this will be a hot stock before too long.
edit: I'm adding a few city maps below. (Explanation in the captions.)
These are the F45 locations in Melbourne, Australia. This is insane. It's like Starbucks. I can only think of a few companies with this level of critical mass in major cities.
Here are the locations in the Los Angeles area. It's starting to approach Melbourne, Australia levels. (Each number represents the number of locations under that dot. I couldn't zoom in further and capture the whole area.)
These are the current locations in Boston, MA. One open and two opening. Compare this to Melbourne and Los Angeles and you can see why this is only the first inning.
The reason why cities can accommodate so many F45 locations is because of the favorable unit economics. Each location breaks even at 75-150 members, and each location can only accommodate about 350 members. Therefore, as F45 reaches critical mass in a city, a large number of locations are needed to meet the demand. This is bullish for the company since more locations = more franchise fees.

10. Corporate owned franchises will accelerate growth further.

I mentioned earlier in point five that F45 has suggested how they may use the company's merger cash, given that they don't need it for the current growth. They've suggested that they may acquire existing franchise locations or establish new company-owned locations.
This is bullish because it will significantly accelerate their revenue growth. Instead of grossing ~$30k in franchise fee revenue each year per location, company-owned locations will likely contribute $275k-$500k in revenue per year. Planet Fitness has followed a similar strategy to this...they've turned to pursuing company-owned locations which has accelerated their revenue growth.
----------------------------------
Additional Notes:
  • The warrants (CRSAW) have an exercise price of $11.50 and the company can redeem them after the common shares (CRSA) have traded above $18 for 30+ days. The warrants were selling for $0.60-$0.65 last week. Warrants purchased at $0.60 would return over 900% if the common shares climb higher than $18 within five years of the merger. Based on F45's rapid growth, I believe that the probability of shares going from $10 to $18 in the next five years is high.
  • As of July 15, the net asset value per share of the common stock was $10.15. That means that if you're able to buy the shares for less than $10.15, your risk is extremely low because you could technically redeem your shares for $10.15 in cash around the merger closing. (However, hopefully the F45 story gets out there and it's no longer trading below the NAV by the merger closing.)
  • Investor relations said a week or two ago that they're awaiting SEC approval of the proxy statement and then they'll send it out with the shareholder vote date. They said that they now expect closing to be "late Q3 / early Q4".
  • Note that there is risk with the warrants, in part because if the merger were somehow derailed, they could lose some or all of their value. However, the compensation for that risk right now is that the return potential on them is massive (as outlined above). The main risk for the merger falling through seems to be the possibility that too many shareholders redeem their shares. In that case, Crescent has the option to add more cash to complete the merger. I personally believe that they would do that. They seem to fully believe in F45 as an investment, and they have a vested interest in the merger going through and then the shares doing well. They announced the merger in June, well into Covid, so this wasn't affected by the Covid surprise. F45's franchise sales have been solid despite Covid, as outlined earlier.
I want to reiterate that I have a long position in both CRSA and CRSAW. I hope to realize the maximum profit on the majority of my warrant position by selling or exercising if/when the common shares are trading above $18 (based on the company's ability to redeem the warrants once the shares trade above $18 for 20 days over a 30 day period).
Like I mentioned, I'll try to answer any questions to the best of my ability as soon as possible in the comments below.
None of this is investment advice, simply an outline of the due diligence that made me highly bullish on F45. Do your own research--there's great further reading in the documents on this page of Crescent's website. In particular, the investor presentation.pdf) I mentioned earlier does an excellent job of laying out the product, business model, financials, etc in an easily digestible way.
submitted by SlowRyder to SPACs [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020.

Markets are expected to be choppy, but dip buyers could be looking at tech favorites in week ahead - (Source)

After another week of losses, tech could be at the heart of a tug of war as dip buyers look for bargains in some of their favorite names and others see the group as still too frothy.
In the past week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down about 0.6%, the third losing week. It was the S&P 500′s longest losing streak since October. Tech was broadly lower, with Amazon and Facebook both down 5% for the week. Information technology shares lost 1% but communications which includes Facebook and Google fell 2.3% for the week.
“I think every time you’ve had a significant pullback in the familiar names, that tends to draw in more money,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “You’ve had a little rotation toward value. That’s a healthy sign for the market. I don’t think that’s an unhealthy market even though stocks look pricey. Given how low interest rates are, stocks look like the only game in town.”
There are also a number of Fed speeches, but the most important will be the appearances by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before three Congressional committees. At two of those, Tuesday and Thursday, Powell appears with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss coronavirus aid.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said he does not expect much from Powell after his comments following the Fed’s meeting this week, though the central bank chairman is likely to once more tell Congress fiscal stimulus is needed to help the economy recover.
Keon said it would be positive if there could be another stimulus deal but the market no longer expects it. “If we do get a deal, that would be really positive. I think at this point, there’s a little bit of a slowdown in news. We still have a ways to go before we get into earnings warnings season. We’re going to worry more about the presidential election and its aftermath,” said Keon.
Keon said investors are increasingly focused on the election and the potential for an uncertain outcome, as states deal with large amounts of mailed ballots for the first time. He said the concern is it could take weeks or months to determine the outcome if the race is close.
“It’s still six weeks to the election. We haven’t had the debates yet. That six weeks is a lifetime. Biden seems to be the favorite at this point, but I don’t think the market is betting on anything but higher volatility,” Keon said. President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden hold their first debate Sept. 29.
“I think volatility is the norm, not the exception, until we get through the election,” said Hogan.
Investors have been hedging against extended volatility after the election. Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P options with Cardinal Capital, said the flow into S&P 500 options for January has been steady over the past several days. “The options markets are implying a contested election that could last until January,” he said. He said the market is not positioning around one candidate or other, just uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs strategists noted Friday that investors have pushed out some hedging further into November, though some investors appear to be betting on an outcome by Dec. 8, the date states with contested elections have to report.
There are also a few important reports on the economic calendar, including housing data on existing home sales Tuesday and new home sales Thursday. “The housing market has been solid and hopefully, we’ll get confirmation of that because people were upset by the decline in housing starts,” said Hogan.
Manufacturing PMI is released Wednesday and durable goods are reported Friday.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 2

As we noted last week, the demand for election charts is off the charts (pun intended), so we are sharing some of our favorite election charts.
Without further ado, here are some more election charts you need to know as November 3 inches closer.
How stocks perform three months before the election has a stellar track record of predicting who will win in November. If stocks are higher, the incumbent party tends to win, while if stocks are lower, the incumbent party tends to lose. This indicator accurately predicted the winner 87% of the time (20 of 23) since the late 1920s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, if President Donald Trump is going to win, right about now is when the S&P 500 Index should start to outperform. Of course, if it weakens, it could mean we will be looking at a President Joe Biden soon.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Speaking of presidents up for re-election, here’s what the S&P 500 historically has done during re-election years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, here are two final charts that may help forecast the outcome.
If real per capita disposable income is higher, the incumbent president usually wins. Conversely, if wages are weak, that bodes well for someone new in the White House. Given real per capita disposable income is up more than 7% this year, it would suggest President Trump should take more than 70% of the votes. Of course, this is greatly skewed due to the CARES Act, so we’d put a major asterisk next to this one.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To sum up, Gallup poll approval ratings have done a nice job of predicting how many votes a president up for re-election might get. With a 42% Gallup approval rating currently, this comes out to 49% of the total votes for President Trump, which points to a close race.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 3

One of the top requests we’ve received the past few weeks is for more charts on the US elections. We shared some of our favorite in Election Charts You Need to See: Part 1 and Part 2, and today’s the third blog in our series on this important event.
S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to jump close to 23% in 2021 according to FactSet, as the global economy recovers. Presidential nominee Joe Biden has made it very clear he will likely hike taxes, which could potentially cut 10 percentage points off earnings growth next year if implemented. If Biden wins, we would expect Chinese tariffs to be removed as well, which would offset some of that impact and according to our friends at Strategas Research Partners would suggest earnings growth of nearly 17%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in our LPL Chart of the Day, how the US dollar does ahead of the election has been a great indicator of which party might win in November. If the dollar is weak three months before the election, this bodes well for the incumbent party, while the incumbent party tends to lose if the dollar is strong. This signal has been right 7 of the past 8 elections.
As we saw back in March, when trouble hits, the US dollar tends to do well, as investors flock to the safety of the world’s reserve currency. When things are calm, the dollar tends to weaken, which favors riskier assets. So far, the dollar is slightly lower, which would suggest a potential win for President Donald Trump.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the size of the tax increase proposed by Joe Biden as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) would be one of the largest ever and rival President Lyndon B. Johnson’s (LBJ) tax increases in the late 1960s. Let’s remember though, if there’s a split Congress, the chances of the full tax plan being implemented is quite slim. Additionally, a weaker economy would also reduce the chances of a large tax hike.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Seasonal Volatility Just Getting Started

The market's day-to-day volatility has picked up in September after experiencing more stable trading action during the summer months. This is not out of the ordinary. Historically, the most volatile time of the year for stocks has been between September and early November. You can see this in the chart below that shows the average absolute daily percentage change for each trading day of the year beginning on the first trading day of January through the last trading day of December. As shown, daily volatility is very consistent around the +/-0.70% level over the first eight months of the year, but then it starts to pick up beginning in September until it reaches a peak during the first week or two of November. From there, the holiday season takes over and daily volatility plummets right through the end of the year. As shown in the chart, unfortunately we've still got a ways to go to get to the top of the volatility mountain, so make sure you've got your climbing gear ready for the next six to eight weeks!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Keeping Tabs On High Frequency Growth

The week ended September 11th showed a sharp decline in our index of weekly GDP versus the year before. As shown, our index can be quite volatile, but it does do a decent job tracking the general trajectory of GDP. Since peaking at an implied growth rate of +0.9% YoY on July 10th, our index has slid to -2% YoY, the lowest reading since mid-June.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at another tracker of short-term economic growth, below we show Weekly Economic Index data updated by the New York Fed each week. After decelerating sequentially YoY for the week ended September 4th, the WEI reported sequential YoY growth slower once again in the week ended September 11th. We also show what each high frequency tracker implies about quarterly growth. As shown, our tracker has consistently implied a higher quarterly growth rate than the Weekly Economic Index, and official data for the last two quarters. That said, Q3 is tracking at least 20%, with upside to the high-20s as the US continues to rebound from COVID. This post was originally published in our post-market macro report -- The Closer -- last night.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sell(ing) Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur

As the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.” It gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement.
The basis for this, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Even in the age of algorithmic, computer, and high frequency trading these seasonal patterns persist as humans still need to turn the machines on and off and feed them money or take it away – and these algorithms and trading programs are written by people so the human influence is still there.
Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 100 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 59% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 6.7%.
This year the high holidays commence on Friday eve, September 18, and end Monday September 28 with Yom Kippur just before Octoberphobia. The current news flow already has folks selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, quite possibly setting up the market for further declines.

S&P 500 down 24 of 30 during week after September options expiration, average loss 0.95%

The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 30 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.
Full stats are in the following sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.01%, S&P 500 –0.95%, NASDAQ –0.95% and a sizable –1.42% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.21.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 9.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.25.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.25.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Costco Wholesale Corp. $335.96

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.85 per share on revenue of $52.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.87 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue increasing by 10.76%. Short interest has decreased by 40.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% above its 200 day moving average of $310.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,071 contracts of the $340.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

AutoZone, Inc. -

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $24.69 per share on revenue of $3.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $24.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.30% with revenue decreasing by 0.21%. Short interest has decreased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,095.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nike Inc $114.66

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $9.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.67% with revenue decreasing by 15.10%. Short interest has increased by 1.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.1% above its 200 day moving average of $96.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,687 contracts of the $118.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aurora Cannabis Inc $6.53

Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.29 per share on revenue of $54.64 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue to decline 35.99%. Short interest has decreased by 91.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 21.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 73.6% below its 200 day moving average of $24.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,300 contracts of the $7.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Rite Aid Corp. $13.44

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $5.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.67% with revenue increasing by 7.34%. Short interest has decreased by 17.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $14.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 16, 2020 there was some notable buying of 858 contracts of the $12.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 22.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $57.32

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.87 per share on revenue of $4.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.13% with revenue increasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 7.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.8% below its 200 day moving average of $57.76. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CarMax, Inc. $103.07

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $5.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.43% with revenue decreasing by 0.60%. Short interest has decreased by 22.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.6% above its 200 day moving average of $87.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stitch Fix, Inc. $28.36

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $415.11 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of at least $433.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 357.14% with revenue decreasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 9.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.7% above its 200 day moving average of $22.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,160 contracts of the $23.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aytu BioScience, Inc. $1.38

Aytu BioScience, Inc. (AYTU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $10.90 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.15% with revenue increasing by 535.20%. Short interest has decreased by 39.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 22.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $1.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. $24.50

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.40 per share on revenue of $1.07 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 122.22% with revenue increasing by 6.26%. Short interest has decreased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.7% above its 200 day moving average of $20.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 507 contracts of the $22.00 put and 502 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

Pilot Briefing — Gameplay Overview

Pilot Briefing — Gameplay Overview

Gameplay Overview
Star Wars™: Squadrons is the name of our next title in a galaxy far, far away! Welcome to your first briefing, pilots. This is where you’ll learn more details about the game on the road to launch. Whether you’re eager to join the New Republic’s vanguard or fight as a titan of war for the Galactic Empire, you’ll get that chance when the game releases worldwide on October 2nd, 2020.
Made in partnership between Motive Studios, Lucasfilm Ltd., and EA, Squadrons aims to provide the deepest, most authentic starfighter experience in the Star Wars galaxy to date. You’ve likely just seen it for yourself, but if not, take a look below.
Reveal Trailer
A few years ago, our team at Motive Montreal was finishing up their work on the single-player campaign for Star Wars Battlefront™ II. During this time we (unsurprisingly) spent a lot of time playing the game. As tried and true fans, the team is incredibly passionate about Star Wars. And that passion is how the idea for this game first came to be.
Inspired by what they worked on and the community’s positive reception to the starfighter experiences, a squadron of devs built a prototype, taking learnings from Starfighter Assault and the Rogue One: VR Mission. From this, “Project Incom” was formed, and if you know your Star Wars canon well, you’ll know that the Incom Corporation was the creator of the iconic T-65B X-wing starfighter used by the Rebellion—most notably by Luke Skywalker.

Key Art
But let’s get into the game itself and start with the basics of the basics: What is Star Wars: Squadrons? It’s a first-person team-based starfighter combat game set a few months after Star Wars Episode VI: Return of the Jedi, simulating the iconic space battles from Star Wars like never before! In the wake of the destruction of the Empire’s second Death Star, the Rebel Alliance has reformed into the New Republic. Despite their climactic victory over the forest moon of Endor, though, the war is not over.
Star Wars: Squadrons gives fans a look at how the war continued throughout the galaxy after the death of the Emperor. Unlike during the years of fighting during the Galactic Civil War leading up to this point, the Empire and the New Republic are much closer in power than they ever had been, allowing for head-to-head combat across the stars.
Gameplay Reveal
The single-player story of Star Wars: Squadrons will help you hone your skills while taking you through a tale that shows you both sides of the war. As the Empire faces infighting and desertion after Endor, the New Republic has a classified plan to stop the mighty Imperial fleet. From mission to mission, players will switch between their custom pilots on either side; a freedom fighter for the New Republic and a hardened warrior in the Imperial Navy. Both sides are fighting for what they believe in—and both will do whatever it takes to win.
In addition to a brand-new story, you’ll also earn your wings in multiplayer battles. Dogfights is a 5v5 mode where two teams earn points by destroying opponents' starfighters in a traditional team deathmatch setting. Fleet Battles is Squadrons’ signature mode. You can play with both players (5v5) and AI (or just AI by yourself) in a multi-stage, objective-based battle. Advance the frontline by dominating the enemy in an intense tug-of-war and carry out bombing runs to take out capital ships to reach your primary objective: the destruction of the enemy flagship.
Pilots will also get to customize themselves and their ships across the fleets on both sides, both aesthetically and functionally. Neither of these will be purchasable with real-world money. Everything in-game is either earned or unlocked via gameplay.

https://preview.redd.it/9lax2dvj7r551.png?width=3840&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5a15042ce5e6e4dae51cd7ce45593ce0ed658a0
How you specialize the various functions of your favorite starfighters is even more important. While playing, you’ll be able to unlock components for your ships so that they can perform to your preferred specifications. Each starfighter can be outfitted uniquely, too, meaning an X-wing may have some different upgrade options than an A-wing or a Y-wing. Ship components range from different weaponry, auxiliary parts that aid in repairing or engaging your enemies, and much more.
Ship Component Slots
  • Primary Weapons
  • Auxiliary (x2)
  • Countermeasures
  • Hull
  • Shields
  • Engines
Each component offers unique effects to your ships, though most have a trade-off. For example, one type of shielding system will provide more protection against blaster fire but less against missiles (or vice versa). There are many more examples beyond that, too. To add to this, you can make your squadron look how you want, as well. Your two pilots (Imperial and Republic) and eight starfighters (four per side) will all have various cosmetic options that you can earn and unlock while playing. There are plenty of different ways to stand out!
Ships Available
  • T-65B X-wing starfighter
  • BTL-A4 Y-wing assault starfightebomber
  • RZ-1 A-wing interceptor
  • UT-60D U-wing starfightesupport craft
  • TIE/ln starfighter (“TIE fighter”)
  • TIE/sa bomber (“TIE bomber”)
  • TIE/in interceptor (“TIE interceptor”)
  • TIE/rp reaper attack lander (“TIE reaper”)
While customizing your ships in the hangar bay is important, how you use them in combat matters just as much! During combat, managing the performance outputs of your ship is crucial. At any given moment, you’ll be able to decide how you want your ship’s power to be channelled between your engine power (speed), laser power (offence), and shield strength (defence).

https://preview.redd.it/dv7w161m7r551.png?width=3840&format=png&auto=webp&s=b48b63bdd34dc6e29fa9bec03c9cf0731adf295a
Mastering power management on the fly is what will separate you from the space dust you leave in your wake. Not all starfighters have shields, but those that do have the ability to manually focus them entirely to the front or back when needed, giving twice the protection to one part of the ship but at the cost of no shielding to the other. With this, though, they’ll typically have slightly lower max speed and offensive capabilities than their unshielded counterparts. Additionally, unshielded ships can quickly transfer additional power to their engines or blasters when they need them the most.
Learning which ships perform best to your capabilities (while also keeping squadron’s balance in mind) will help you excel in the cockpit. Because of the uniqueness between ships and factions, you’ll have the option to have matchmaking prioritize which faction you prefer to play a part of, be it for loyalty or functionality.

https://preview.redd.it/v2rfu9zn7r551.png?width=3840&format=png&auto=webp&s=8968581d3e46265c907deab577058d6022f8ed4b
There’s even more we could get into, but we’ll save for another day. Launch isn’t far off and the team is working hard on the final polishing of the game before getting it into your hands. We’re incredibly excited for that day to come, so hang in there with us!
Keep your sights on the horizon for more news, pilots! We’d love to hear any questions you have, too! If we can, we’ll be sure to answer them in a Pilot Briefing or somewhere else online. In the future, we’re going to go deeper on some important topics, but until next time, safe travels through the hyperspace lanes! And keep your distance from any enemy ships. But don’t look like you’re trying to keep your distance. I don’t know...fly casual!
See you in the stars, pilots.
submitted by EA_Charlemagne to StarWarsSquadrons [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020.

Markets are expected to be choppy, but dip buyers could be looking at tech favorites in week ahead - (Source)

After another week of losses, tech could be at the heart of a tug of war as dip buyers look for bargains in some of their favorite names and others see the group as still too frothy.
In the past week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down about 0.6%, the third losing week. It was the S&P 500′s longest losing streak since October. Tech was broadly lower, with Amazon and Facebook both down 5% for the week. Information technology shares lost 1% but communications which includes Facebook and Google fell 2.3% for the week.
“I think every time you’ve had a significant pullback in the familiar names, that tends to draw in more money,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “You’ve had a little rotation toward value. That’s a healthy sign for the market. I don’t think that’s an unhealthy market even though stocks look pricey. Given how low interest rates are, stocks look like the only game in town.”
There are also a number of Fed speeches, but the most important will be the appearances by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before three Congressional committees. At two of those, Tuesday and Thursday, Powell appears with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss coronavirus aid.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said he does not expect much from Powell after his comments following the Fed’s meeting this week, though the central bank chairman is likely to once more tell Congress fiscal stimulus is needed to help the economy recover.
Keon said it would be positive if there could be another stimulus deal but the market no longer expects it. “If we do get a deal, that would be really positive. I think at this point, there’s a little bit of a slowdown in news. We still have a ways to go before we get into earnings warnings season. We’re going to worry more about the presidential election and its aftermath,” said Keon.
Keon said investors are increasingly focused on the election and the potential for an uncertain outcome, as states deal with large amounts of mailed ballots for the first time. He said the concern is it could take weeks or months to determine the outcome if the race is close.
“It’s still six weeks to the election. We haven’t had the debates yet. That six weeks is a lifetime. Biden seems to be the favorite at this point, but I don’t think the market is betting on anything but higher volatility,” Keon said. President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden hold their first debate Sept. 29.
“I think volatility is the norm, not the exception, until we get through the election,” said Hogan.
Investors have been hedging against extended volatility after the election. Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P options with Cardinal Capital, said the flow into S&P 500 options for January has been steady over the past several days. “The options markets are implying a contested election that could last until January,” he said. He said the market is not positioning around one candidate or other, just uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs strategists noted Friday that investors have pushed out some hedging further into November, though some investors appear to be betting on an outcome by Dec. 8, the date states with contested elections have to report.
There are also a few important reports on the economic calendar, including housing data on existing home sales Tuesday and new home sales Thursday. “The housing market has been solid and hopefully, we’ll get confirmation of that because people were upset by the decline in housing starts,” said Hogan.
Manufacturing PMI is released Wednesday and durable goods are reported Friday.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 2

As we noted last week, the demand for election charts is off the charts (pun intended), so we are sharing some of our favorite election charts.
Without further ado, here are some more election charts you need to know as November 3 inches closer.
How stocks perform three months before the election has a stellar track record of predicting who will win in November. If stocks are higher, the incumbent party tends to win, while if stocks are lower, the incumbent party tends to lose. This indicator accurately predicted the winner 87% of the time (20 of 23) since the late 1920s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, if President Donald Trump is going to win, right about now is when the S&P 500 Index should start to outperform. Of course, if it weakens, it could mean we will be looking at a President Joe Biden soon.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Speaking of presidents up for re-election, here’s what the S&P 500 historically has done during re-election years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, here are two final charts that may help forecast the outcome.
If real per capita disposable income is higher, the incumbent president usually wins. Conversely, if wages are weak, that bodes well for someone new in the White House. Given real per capita disposable income is up more than 7% this year, it would suggest President Trump should take more than 70% of the votes. Of course, this is greatly skewed due to the CARES Act, so we’d put a major asterisk next to this one.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To sum up, Gallup poll approval ratings have done a nice job of predicting how many votes a president up for re-election might get. With a 42% Gallup approval rating currently, this comes out to 49% of the total votes for President Trump, which points to a close race.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 3

One of the top requests we’ve received the past few weeks is for more charts on the US elections. We shared some of our favorite in Election Charts You Need to See: Part 1 and Part 2, and today’s the third blog in our series on this important event.
S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to jump close to 23% in 2021 according to FactSet, as the global economy recovers. Presidential nominee Joe Biden has made it very clear he will likely hike taxes, which could potentially cut 10 percentage points off earnings growth next year if implemented. If Biden wins, we would expect Chinese tariffs to be removed as well, which would offset some of that impact and according to our friends at Strategas Research Partners would suggest earnings growth of nearly 17%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in our LPL Chart of the Day, how the US dollar does ahead of the election has been a great indicator of which party might win in November. If the dollar is weak three months before the election, this bodes well for the incumbent party, while the incumbent party tends to lose if the dollar is strong. This signal has been right 7 of the past 8 elections.
As we saw back in March, when trouble hits, the US dollar tends to do well, as investors flock to the safety of the world’s reserve currency. When things are calm, the dollar tends to weaken, which favors riskier assets. So far, the dollar is slightly lower, which would suggest a potential win for President Donald Trump.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the size of the tax increase proposed by Joe Biden as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) would be one of the largest ever and rival President Lyndon B. Johnson’s (LBJ) tax increases in the late 1960s. Let’s remember though, if there’s a split Congress, the chances of the full tax plan being implemented is quite slim. Additionally, a weaker economy would also reduce the chances of a large tax hike.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Seasonal Volatility Just Getting Started

The market's day-to-day volatility has picked up in September after experiencing more stable trading action during the summer months. This is not out of the ordinary. Historically, the most volatile time of the year for stocks has been between September and early November. You can see this in the chart below that shows the average absolute daily percentage change for each trading day of the year beginning on the first trading day of January through the last trading day of December. As shown, daily volatility is very consistent around the +/-0.70% level over the first eight months of the year, but then it starts to pick up beginning in September until it reaches a peak during the first week or two of November. From there, the holiday season takes over and daily volatility plummets right through the end of the year. As shown in the chart, unfortunately we've still got a ways to go to get to the top of the volatility mountain, so make sure you've got your climbing gear ready for the next six to eight weeks!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Keeping Tabs On High Frequency Growth

The week ended September 11th showed a sharp decline in our index of weekly GDP versus the year before. As shown, our index can be quite volatile, but it does do a decent job tracking the general trajectory of GDP. Since peaking at an implied growth rate of +0.9% YoY on July 10th, our index has slid to -2% YoY, the lowest reading since mid-June.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at another tracker of short-term economic growth, below we show Weekly Economic Index data updated by the New York Fed each week. After decelerating sequentially YoY for the week ended September 4th, the WEI reported sequential YoY growth slower once again in the week ended September 11th. We also show what each high frequency tracker implies about quarterly growth. As shown, our tracker has consistently implied a higher quarterly growth rate than the Weekly Economic Index, and official data for the last two quarters. That said, Q3 is tracking at least 20%, with upside to the high-20s as the US continues to rebound from COVID. This post was originally published in our post-market macro report -- The Closer -- last night.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sell(ing) Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur

As the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.” It gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement.
The basis for this, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Even in the age of algorithmic, computer, and high frequency trading these seasonal patterns persist as humans still need to turn the machines on and off and feed them money or take it away – and these algorithms and trading programs are written by people so the human influence is still there.
Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 100 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 59% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 6.7%.
This year the high holidays commence on Friday eve, September 18, and end Monday September 28 with Yom Kippur just before Octoberphobia. The current news flow already has folks selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, quite possibly setting up the market for further declines.

S&P 500 down 24 of 30 during week after September options expiration, average loss 0.95%

The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 30 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.
Full stats are in the following sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.01%, S&P 500 –0.95%, NASDAQ –0.95% and a sizable –1.42% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 18th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.20.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $COST
  • $AZO
  • $NKE
  • $ACB
  • $RAD
  • $GIS
  • $KMX
  • $SFIX
  • $AYTU
  • $JKS
  • $FDS
  • $DRI
  • $ACN
  • $TNP
  • $KBH
  • $BB
  • $CTAS
  • $NEOG
  • $WOR
  • $JBL
  • $QTT
  • $CNTG
  • $TCOM
  • $NTWK
  • $MTN
  • $FUL
  • $CAMP
  • $SANW
  • $AIR
  • $AIH
  • $SCHL
  • $ERYP
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.21.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 9.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.25.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.25.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Costco Wholesale Corp. $335.96

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.85 per share on revenue of $52.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.87 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue increasing by 10.76%. Short interest has decreased by 40.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% above its 200 day moving average of $310.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,071 contracts of the $340.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

AutoZone, Inc. -

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $24.69 per share on revenue of $3.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $24.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.30% with revenue decreasing by 0.21%. Short interest has decreased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,095.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nike Inc $114.66

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $9.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.67% with revenue decreasing by 15.10%. Short interest has increased by 1.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.1% above its 200 day moving average of $96.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,687 contracts of the $118.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aurora Cannabis Inc $6.53

Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.29 per share on revenue of $54.64 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue to decline 35.99%. Short interest has decreased by 91.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 21.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 73.6% below its 200 day moving average of $24.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,300 contracts of the $7.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Rite Aid Corp. $13.44

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $5.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.67% with revenue increasing by 7.34%. Short interest has decreased by 17.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $14.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 16, 2020 there was some notable buying of 858 contracts of the $12.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 22.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $57.32

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.87 per share on revenue of $4.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.13% with revenue increasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 7.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.8% below its 200 day moving average of $57.76. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CarMax, Inc. $103.07

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $5.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.43% with revenue decreasing by 0.60%. Short interest has decreased by 22.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.6% above its 200 day moving average of $87.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stitch Fix, Inc. $28.36

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $415.11 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of at least $433.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 357.14% with revenue decreasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 9.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.7% above its 200 day moving average of $22.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,160 contracts of the $23.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aytu BioScience, Inc. $1.38

Aytu BioScience, Inc. (AYTU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $10.90 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.15% with revenue increasing by 535.20%. Short interest has decreased by 39.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 22.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $1.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. $24.50

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.40 per share on revenue of $1.07 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 122.22% with revenue increasing by 6.26%. Short interest has decreased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.7% above its 200 day moving average of $20.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 507 contracts of the $22.00 put and 502 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 21st, 2020.

Markets are expected to be choppy, but dip buyers could be looking at tech favorites in week ahead - (Source)

After another week of losses, tech could be at the heart of a tug of war as dip buyers look for bargains in some of their favorite names and others see the group as still too frothy.
In the past week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down about 0.6%, the third losing week. It was the S&P 500′s longest losing streak since October. Tech was broadly lower, with Amazon and Facebook both down 5% for the week. Information technology shares lost 1% but communications which includes Facebook and Google fell 2.3% for the week.
“I think every time you’ve had a significant pullback in the familiar names, that tends to draw in more money,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “You’ve had a little rotation toward value. That’s a healthy sign for the market. I don’t think that’s an unhealthy market even though stocks look pricey. Given how low interest rates are, stocks look like the only game in town.”
There are also a number of Fed speeches, but the most important will be the appearances by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before three Congressional committees. At two of those, Tuesday and Thursday, Powell appears with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss coronavirus aid.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said he does not expect much from Powell after his comments following the Fed’s meeting this week, though the central bank chairman is likely to once more tell Congress fiscal stimulus is needed to help the economy recover.
Keon said it would be positive if there could be another stimulus deal but the market no longer expects it. “If we do get a deal, that would be really positive. I think at this point, there’s a little bit of a slowdown in news. We still have a ways to go before we get into earnings warnings season. We’re going to worry more about the presidential election and its aftermath,” said Keon.
Keon said investors are increasingly focused on the election and the potential for an uncertain outcome, as states deal with large amounts of mailed ballots for the first time. He said the concern is it could take weeks or months to determine the outcome if the race is close.
“It’s still six weeks to the election. We haven’t had the debates yet. That six weeks is a lifetime. Biden seems to be the favorite at this point, but I don’t think the market is betting on anything but higher volatility,” Keon said. President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden hold their first debate Sept. 29.
“I think volatility is the norm, not the exception, until we get through the election,” said Hogan.
Investors have been hedging against extended volatility after the election. Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P options with Cardinal Capital, said the flow into S&P 500 options for January has been steady over the past several days. “The options markets are implying a contested election that could last until January,” he said. He said the market is not positioning around one candidate or other, just uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs strategists noted Friday that investors have pushed out some hedging further into November, though some investors appear to be betting on an outcome by Dec. 8, the date states with contested elections have to report.
There are also a few important reports on the economic calendar, including housing data on existing home sales Tuesday and new home sales Thursday. “The housing market has been solid and hopefully, we’ll get confirmation of that because people were upset by the decline in housing starts,” said Hogan.
Manufacturing PMI is released Wednesday and durable goods are reported Friday.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 2

As we noted last week, the demand for election charts is off the charts (pun intended), so we are sharing some of our favorite election charts.
Without further ado, here are some more election charts you need to know as November 3 inches closer.
How stocks perform three months before the election has a stellar track record of predicting who will win in November. If stocks are higher, the incumbent party tends to win, while if stocks are lower, the incumbent party tends to lose. This indicator accurately predicted the winner 87% of the time (20 of 23) since the late 1920s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, if President Donald Trump is going to win, right about now is when the S&P 500 Index should start to outperform. Of course, if it weakens, it could mean we will be looking at a President Joe Biden soon.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Speaking of presidents up for re-election, here’s what the S&P 500 historically has done during re-election years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, here are two final charts that may help forecast the outcome.
If real per capita disposable income is higher, the incumbent president usually wins. Conversely, if wages are weak, that bodes well for someone new in the White House. Given real per capita disposable income is up more than 7% this year, it would suggest President Trump should take more than 70% of the votes. Of course, this is greatly skewed due to the CARES Act, so we’d put a major asterisk next to this one.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To sum up, Gallup poll approval ratings have done a nice job of predicting how many votes a president up for re-election might get. With a 42% Gallup approval rating currently, this comes out to 49% of the total votes for President Trump, which points to a close race.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 3

One of the top requests we’ve received the past few weeks is for more charts on the US elections. We shared some of our favorite in Election Charts You Need to See: Part 1 and Part 2, and today’s the third blog in our series on this important event.
S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to jump close to 23% in 2021 according to FactSet, as the global economy recovers. Presidential nominee Joe Biden has made it very clear he will likely hike taxes, which could potentially cut 10 percentage points off earnings growth next year if implemented. If Biden wins, we would expect Chinese tariffs to be removed as well, which would offset some of that impact and according to our friends at Strategas Research Partners would suggest earnings growth of nearly 17%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in our LPL Chart of the Day, how the US dollar does ahead of the election has been a great indicator of which party might win in November. If the dollar is weak three months before the election, this bodes well for the incumbent party, while the incumbent party tends to lose if the dollar is strong. This signal has been right 7 of the past 8 elections.
As we saw back in March, when trouble hits, the US dollar tends to do well, as investors flock to the safety of the world’s reserve currency. When things are calm, the dollar tends to weaken, which favors riskier assets. So far, the dollar is slightly lower, which would suggest a potential win for President Donald Trump.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the size of the tax increase proposed by Joe Biden as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) would be one of the largest ever and rival President Lyndon B. Johnson’s (LBJ) tax increases in the late 1960s. Let’s remember though, if there’s a split Congress, the chances of the full tax plan being implemented is quite slim. Additionally, a weaker economy would also reduce the chances of a large tax hike.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Seasonal Volatility Just Getting Started

The market's day-to-day volatility has picked up in September after experiencing more stable trading action during the summer months. This is not out of the ordinary. Historically, the most volatile time of the year for stocks has been between September and early November. You can see this in the chart below that shows the average absolute daily percentage change for each trading day of the year beginning on the first trading day of January through the last trading day of December. As shown, daily volatility is very consistent around the +/-0.70% level over the first eight months of the year, but then it starts to pick up beginning in September until it reaches a peak during the first week or two of November. From there, the holiday season takes over and daily volatility plummets right through the end of the year. As shown in the chart, unfortunately we've still got a ways to go to get to the top of the volatility mountain, so make sure you've got your climbing gear ready for the next six to eight weeks!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Keeping Tabs On High Frequency Growth

The week ended September 11th showed a sharp decline in our index of weekly GDP versus the year before. As shown, our index can be quite volatile, but it does do a decent job tracking the general trajectory of GDP. Since peaking at an implied growth rate of +0.9% YoY on July 10th, our index has slid to -2% YoY, the lowest reading since mid-June.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at another tracker of short-term economic growth, below we show Weekly Economic Index data updated by the New York Fed each week. After decelerating sequentially YoY for the week ended September 4th, the WEI reported sequential YoY growth slower once again in the week ended September 11th. We also show what each high frequency tracker implies about quarterly growth. As shown, our tracker has consistently implied a higher quarterly growth rate than the Weekly Economic Index, and official data for the last two quarters. That said, Q3 is tracking at least 20%, with upside to the high-20s as the US continues to rebound from COVID. This post was originally published in our post-market macro report -- The Closer -- last night.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sell(ing) Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur

As the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.” It gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement.
The basis for this, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Even in the age of algorithmic, computer, and high frequency trading these seasonal patterns persist as humans still need to turn the machines on and off and feed them money or take it away – and these algorithms and trading programs are written by people so the human influence is still there.
Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 100 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 59% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 6.7%.
This year the high holidays commence on Friday eve, September 18, and end Monday September 28 with Yom Kippur just before Octoberphobia. The current news flow already has folks selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, quite possibly setting up the market for further declines.

S&P 500 down 24 of 30 during week after September options expiration, average loss 0.95%

The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 30 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.
Full stats are in the following sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.01%, S&P 500 –0.95%, NASDAQ –0.95% and a sizable –1.42% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 18th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.20.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $COST
  • $AZO
  • $NKE
  • $ACB
  • $RAD
  • $GIS
  • $KMX
  • $SFIX
  • $AYTU
  • $JKS
  • $FDS
  • $DRI
  • $ACN
  • $TNP
  • $KBH
  • $BB
  • $CTAS
  • $NEOG
  • $WOR
  • $JBL
  • $QTT
  • $CNTG
  • $TCOM
  • $NTWK
  • $MTN
  • $FUL
  • $CAMP
  • $SANW
  • $AIR
  • $AIH
  • $SCHL
  • $ERYP
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.21.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 9.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 9.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.22.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.25.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.25.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Costco Wholesale Corp. $335.96

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.85 per share on revenue of $52.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.87 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue increasing by 10.76%. Short interest has decreased by 40.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% above its 200 day moving average of $310.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,071 contracts of the $340.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

AutoZone, Inc. -

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $24.69 per share on revenue of $3.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $24.85 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.30% with revenue decreasing by 0.21%. Short interest has decreased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,095.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nike Inc $114.66

Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $9.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.67% with revenue decreasing by 15.10%. Short interest has increased by 1.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.1% above its 200 day moving average of $96.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,687 contracts of the $118.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aurora Cannabis Inc $6.53

Aurora Cannabis Inc (ACB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.29 per share on revenue of $54.64 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue to decline 35.99%. Short interest has decreased by 91.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 21.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 73.6% below its 200 day moving average of $24.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,300 contracts of the $7.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Rite Aid Corp. $13.44

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $5.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.67% with revenue increasing by 7.34%. Short interest has decreased by 17.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $14.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 16, 2020 there was some notable buying of 858 contracts of the $12.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 20.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 22.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $57.32

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.87 per share on revenue of $4.16 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.13% with revenue increasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 7.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.8% below its 200 day moving average of $57.76. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CarMax, Inc. $103.07

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $5.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.43% with revenue decreasing by 0.60%. Short interest has decreased by 22.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.6% above its 200 day moving average of $87.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stitch Fix, Inc. $28.36

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $415.11 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of at least $433.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 357.14% with revenue decreasing by 3.94%. Short interest has decreased by 9.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.7% above its 200 day moving average of $22.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,160 contracts of the $23.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aytu BioScience, Inc. $1.38

Aytu BioScience, Inc. (AYTU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $10.90 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.15% with revenue increasing by 535.20%. Short interest has decreased by 39.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 22.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $1.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. $24.50

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Wednesday, September 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.40 per share on revenue of $1.07 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 122.22% with revenue increasing by 6.26%. Short interest has decreased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.7% above its 200 day moving average of $20.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 507 contracts of the $22.00 put and 502 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/23/2020

Pre Market Brief for Thursday July 23rd 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Updated as of 3:30 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Wednesday 07/22/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday July 23rd 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)
(JOBLESS NUMBERS TODAY)
News Heading into Thursday July 23rd 2020
NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB. THE CREATOR OF THIS THREAD COMPILED THE FOLLOWING IN A QUICK MANNER AND DOES NOT ATTEST TO THE VERACITY OF THE INFORMATION BELOW. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING YOUR OWN SOURCES AND DOING YOUR OWN DD.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of these headlines before trading.
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Guangzhou Shizun Auto Parts Trade Vehicle Parts Ltd - YouTube Part Brands? Made in China? How to Choose Quality Auto Parts Brand New Auto Parts Wholesale Market in Guangzhou Walking Tour of New Auto Parts Market in Guangzhou

Business Type: Distributors, Importers: Deals In: New & Used Auto Parts, A C Compressors1, Accelerator Pedal, Compressors, Accelerator Pedal, Air Bag Module/Parts, Air Brake Ass'y General Information. Leon Adams Service Manager 7672752488 Batteries, vehicle accessories, paint, rims, tyres, tools, car care, etc. Auto Trade Ltd. bought the automotive division in September 1994 from Springfield Trading (1959) Ltd. with a group of thirteen employees. RockAuto ships auto parts and body parts from over 300 manufacturers to customers' doors worldwide, all at warehouse prices. Easy to use parts catalog. VW Golf MK5 2004-2008 Front Electric Window Regulator W/O Motor Left Side New (#264395673808) d***i (40) 08-06-2020: eBay Feedback Widget by Free Seller Tools. Trade Vehicle Parts is a UK based supplier and distributor of insurance approved quality accident repair parts for all vehicle makes & models. Our stock range includes Bonnets, Bumpers ... “At Central Auto Parts, we use one of the PartsTrader supplier inventory integrations and the Auto-Quote feature to assist in managing orders more effectively and increasing our order volume. The features have also saved me time to focus on other sales opportunities.”

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Guangzhou Shizun Auto Parts

EEP Auto Parts CO., LTD Profile EEP CANDY ... 5 Tips for Navigating China's Largest Trade Show - Duration: 3:43. Jungle Scout Recommended for you. 3:43. Brand New Auto Parts Wholesale Market in ... This is a third-party verification video introducing Shizun Auto Parts. Shizun is a chrome automotive accessories manufacturer in China, we can achieve what you want, e.g. chrome door handle cover ... Since 1978 the team at Alder Auto Parts has been providing their customers throughout Surrey and the Fraser Valley with the very best in automotive parts and... #asneverseenb4 #caraccessories #guangzhoucarparts Today As Never Seen B4 takes you to the new auto parts market in Guangzhou located at Hengfu Road. This new market is very near old Shenda market. Car parts. Never Buy Car Parts From This Place, DIY and car repair with Scotty Kilmer. Where to buy car parts. Buying car parts online. Buying car parts from...

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